Bits and Pieces from Here and There

Each and every network operator is trying its best to find ways to attract and keep its customers. It appears that the evolving strategy is to find great new smartphones and add some sizzle to them.

This COMMENTARY is a little different from most. I usually write about a specific topic, but that means I often don’t get a chance to comment about other happenings. This week’s COMMENTARY is full of bits and pieces of things I have been looking at and wondering about.

Apple Bites

Let’s start with Steve Job’s battle with Adobe. Jobs claims Adobe’s Flash product has some problems and therefore should not be permitted on the Apple iPhone and iPad platform. Why not work with Adobe? I would like to remind Steve that in 1985 when he, my brother Jonathan, and Paul Brainard of Aldus were discussing the new laser printer and what could be done with it. Out of that came Desktop Publishing in which Adobe played a very big role in helping set the standards for typefaces and other related products. Had it not been for Adobe and its work directly with Apple (and others), DTP as it was known in those days would have taken longer to mature and revolutionize the typesetting and document layout industry.

Speaking of Apple, I wonder why an operating system that was born inside Apple and spun out in 1990 (General Magic) never had any real influence on today’s wireless operating systems or applications. The General Magic Magic Cap operating system was first developed inside Apple and later Marc Porat, Bill Atkinson, and Andy Hertzfeld left Apple to complete the project. Marc’s vision in 1990 was that handheld devices (or “Personal Intelligent Communicators” as he called them) would require a combination of computing and communications collaboration. Magic Cap had some really interesting elements in it, one of which could be of great value today with our approaching broadband capacity issues.

Information could be stored within the operating system and programmers could invoke it from another Magic Cap device. The first demo of this was to send just a few bytes to another device that activated a little guy who walked across the screen carrying a birthday cake and candle with “Happy Birthday” above it. This type of intelligent programming makes a lot of sense even today and could be used across iPhones/iPads, Android phones, and even BlackBerrys. We all need to focus on the fact that in the communications and computing chain, the weak link is still bandwidth and that won’t change anytime soon. Employing this type of shorthand could greatly reduce the amount of information that needs to be sent across a network.

iPad Precursor

And then there is all of the great work done by GO in the development of the PenPoint operating system, and EO in building the EO Personal Communicator based on PenPoint. Together they produced one of the first wirelessly-enabled tablet computers. AT&T bought the companies, merged them, and let them die a slow death. The merger was not based on wireless, it was based on AT&T being in the chipset business then and both the EO 440 and 880 using the AT&T Hobbit processor. This product was introduced prior to AT&T’s involvement in the Cellular Digital Packet Data (CDPD) end of wireless and it did have a standard cellular modem built in. AT&T killed both the product and the company in 1994.

How Will the iPad Do?

The answer seems obvious since Apple sold somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 of the Wi-Fi-only version in less than a week. I suspect it will be a hit and that it will do some harm to both the netbook and smartbook markets. It might hurt Amazon’s Kindle sales as well. I have one of the original Kindles and I am looking to upgrade, I thought to the newest Kindle. Now that there is a Kindle app for the iPad, I am looking at this as an alternative, but it would have to be the full-blown iPad: 64 GB with both Wi-Fi and wide-area wireless. I cannot see myself having to hunt around for Wi-Fi and then sign up for service in zillions of locations and I certainly don’t want to pay Boingo $9.95 or even $7.05 per month to use the iPad. The Kindle has spoiled me as far as wireless subscriptions go since none are needed. I can download books almost anywhere, and while I do know the Kindle uses Sprint (EV-DO Rev A), I don’t even have to know that.

I think Apple should have made a deal with AT&T to “hide” the network if all I am doing is downloading books and applications that don’t need the network for anything else. It seems to me that Kindle got more than the device right, it also got the wireless portion right. Why can’t there be wide-area pricing for the iPad that is perceived as free? Simply include the network usage fee for the download in the cost of the books and applications.

Microsoft Joins “Community” Party

Or at least that is what I call a smartphone that is more than a phone and the entire user experience is assisted by a smart backend. The BlackBerry was the first to accomplish this community effect with its BES server and then tools for IT managers. These tools enabled an IT shop to download, configure, and erase BlackBerrys on a corporate-wide basis. Apple migrated some of these management functions to the consumer market, and an iPhone user can now pretty much set up the iPhone (or iPad) on the website and download the changes to the device.

Microsoft has partnered with Verizon and Sharp to launch two new devices, the KIN One and KIN Two. These phones are designed for those who like to live in a fishbowl and want everyone in their group of friends and/or associates to know what they are doing every minute of every day. I am sure some folks will really have to have this phone. The main screen connects you to Microsoft and third-party sites such as Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter, and displays them all on a single screen. The service (or is it the phone?) also enables you to access your information that is stored not only on your KIN but also in the cloud so you can organize, retrieve, and erase content. Microsoft says KIN phones will be the first Windows phones to provide what it calls the “Zune” experience, including music, video, FM radio, and podcast playback. Once you acquire a Zune pass, you will be able to link the KIN to your Zune account and have full access.

The New Phone Challenge

One of the problems with launching a new phone or services that require a new phone is that all of the network operators have been busy selling us two-year contracts that accommodate one phone upgrade during the contract period. Or, as I have been told by one network provider, I can upgrade today and my contract will be extended for two more years. Many teens and tweens who might want these new phones won’t be able to buy them anytime soon because of their existing contract or their family’s contract if they are part of a family plan.

This is not only true with the KIN, it applies to any phone. I know that a lot of people decided to buy an iPhone regardless of what it cost to get out of their old contract on AT&T or another network but that was because the iPhone was so radically different. In most cases, however, if networks want their new phones with new services to be a huge success, they will have to revise their thinking and learn to bend a little to facilitate uptake. Unless the KIN becomes a large community like the iPhone community, it will have a difficult time capturing enough of the market for the services to be “cool” enough to warrant moving to a new device. On the other hand, if there aren’t enough KINs in use out there, the service won’t catch on.

Each and every network operator is trying its best to find ways to attract and keep its customers. It appears that the evolving strategy is to find great new smartphones and add some sizzle to them. Android phones are hot products now, the iPhone continues to be hot, and of course the folks at RIM continue to up the ante with their new BlackBerrys. If, as rumored, Verizon ends up with its own iPhone and then iPad, it will be interesting to see how it handles the issue of people wanting these devices versus their existing contract obligations. And it will be interesting to see how many iPhone customers leave AT&T for Verizon if the rumors are true.

Network Upgrades

Meanwhile, AT&T is working hard on its network upgrades and making real progress. Part of the issues with the iPhone had to do with making it a better citizen on the AT&T network (and other networks in other parts of the world). It appears from the reports I have been getting that AT&T has made great strides in network capacity including in San Francisco and New York. Of course, we have to understand that it takes time to build out more cell sites. I have been working with the local AT&T system engineers on finding some new sites in my area and relocating others. As with any large wireless service provider, it has to find the sites, pass recommendations up the management chain, and get approval and a budget before it can even approach local planning commissions. If you add the time it takes to win corporate buy-in to the time it takes to process sites through planning commissions, it can take a year or two and sometimes longer for site approval and then build-out. Fixing capacity issues is not an overnight project.

This is one reason a number of operators are really excited about Femtocells. These are small access point devices placed in homes and offices to provide in-building coverage. Femtocells are becoming popular with the networks because they take customers off the main networks’ wide-area radio systems (cell sites) by offloading traffic to the in-building network. These in-building cells connect to the network’s back-end via your own DSL or cable broadband connection.

CTIA Recap

Our Wireless University held the day prior to CTIA shows, now in its 15th year, was filled to overflowing and became a standing-room-only event. We received a lot of positive comments about this year’s content, but we ran out of printed course materials due to the many people who showed up on Super Passes. We had to scramble to get a PDF of the slides up on a private area of our website so it could be downloaded since we never did find the 15 or so USB dongles that had been pre-loaded with the presentation. Even after returning from Las Vegas, the dongles remain among the missing.

We also held our 20^th Anniversary Wireless Dinner at CTIA Wireless 2010 and it was also well attended with more than 300 invited guests. The “entertainment” portion of the program was a roast of me, but it wasn’t really a roast since those taking part only said nice things about me. I appreciated each of the roaster’s remarks and judging by the many comments, a good time was had by all.

Newsletters

I have been writing newsletters and articles since 1980. A few years ago, we put together binders with copies of all of them including my Mobile Emergency Communications newsletters from 1980 through 1982, The Seybold Report on Professional Computing that was part of the family business until I took it over in 1985, and all of the newsletters I have written since for my own company as well as the three years of our joint newsletter with Forbes, and then back to our own again. When I say newsletters, I don’t mean 8-pagers (except for the Forbes newsletter). Most of our newsletters were between 28 and 36 pages and reviewing them is like taking a walk through personal computing and wireless history. I have wanted to find a way to get all of these publications posted online, but I never seemed to get around to this project.

A few months ago, RIM came to me and asked if it could have the newsletters scanned and turned into searchable PDF files. I was delighted with this proposal and I now have PDFs of all of the newsletters. Our plan is to post this library on our website and charge a small fee for each issue and to also sell a license for access to the entire library. It certainly makes my research easier now that I can search in digital form instead of having to read through printed copies. Needless to say, I have been doing a lot of searching. I will let you know when they are available online.

Final Thoughts

One indicator that the economy is improving is the growing number of companies that contact us about consulting, white papers, and speaking at upcoming events. When the economy goes south, we often lose customers that cut back first on consulting services and then by lowering head counts. If the first quarter of this year is any indication, we are well on our way to returning to better times.

The wireless industry is changing and growing rapidly with more participants than ever before. Companies that hadn’t even thought about wireless a few years ago are now in the thick of things having recognized that wireless expands their horizons with more and better tools and accessibility to their devices or content. These folks are becoming regulars at the wireless shows held throughout the year and more trade shows, conferences, and meetings are including sessions on wireless as it applies to specific industry segments. Wireless will continue to grow quickly and those who are looking toward us, as a community, to help them understand how wireless connectivity can add value to their products and services will find most of us ready and willing to help.

Andrew M. Seybold