WiMAX in a Bind

The reality is that no matter how much Intel pushes and how much money it spends, the WiMAX community has been observing the progress in the LTE community.

Some (but not all) claim WiMAX will deliver the goods for broadband data and that it is a 4G technology. The most prominent U.S. WiMAX promoter is, of course, Intel, and the reason is simple: Intel is on the outside of wireless looking in. It has a dismal track record and is trying desperately to find a way to compete in this well-established industry that is moving at the speed of light.

Over the past few years, Intel has been pushing, prodding, and feeding the WiMAX community in an effort to increase momentum and attract customers who will buy wireless devices powered by an Intel processor and maybe even including WiMAX. The reality is that no matter how much Intel pushes and how much money it spends, the WiMAX community has been observing the progress in the LTE community. Many who have been deeply involved in WiMAX are now talking about taking what they have learned by creating WiMAX chips, infrastructure, and devices into the LTE space.

At this point, WiMAX is a Time Division Duplex (TDD) technology while most cellular technologies are Frequency Division Duplex (FDD), but the WiMAX Forum says it is working on an FDD version of the specification. Meanwhile, 3GPP, the LTE standards body, is working on a TDD version of LTE known as TD-LTE that will be deployed in China and perhaps India, depending on the outcome of the next auction there. TD-LTE has also piqued the interest of WiMAX operators, including Clearwire (51% owned by Sprint), and while they have not said they will move to TD-LTE, in several presentations their execs have not ruled it out, either.

In fact, a short while ago, a group of companies including Clearwire asked the 3GPP standards body to step up its efforts on TD-LTE, and the Clearwire CEO has called for there to be one common standard in the future. Why is a standard needed? The primary reason is for cost savings to both network operators and customers. More devices being built for a single standard means the chips and all of the other components needed for cell sites and user devices can be produced in larger volume, which means lower prices. It really is more about economics than which technology is “better.” WiMAX purists and LTE purists will never agree on which technology is better or which is better suited for what portion of spectrum; the marketplace will decide based on system operation and the number and types of devices that will become available.

The WiMAX answer to all of this is to push hard to get WiMAX 2 through the IEEE standard procedure so it will have a standard that more closely resembles the capabilities of LTE. At the recent WiMAX Forum Congress held in Asia, the focus was clearly on getting the WiMAX 2 standard out the door sooner rather than later. The original time frame was for the standard to be completed by 2012 or even into 2013. Now the group is saying it will be ready in 2011, well before the TD-LTE specification is completed. Even so, many companies will jump the gun and build to the new standard while it is in process, knowing that most of the changes they will have to make to their products will be able to be made with software.

Another driving force to finish the WiMAX 2 standards is that many WiMAX operators are reporting very high data usage by their customers. Figures quoted in a recent Fierce Wireless article indicate that many operators are seeing monthly data usage as high as 10-13 GB. When Sprint’s Xohm launched in Baltimore, I was told that Sprint was courting high-data users (5-6 GB per month). Now Sprint and others are faced with per-person data consumption double that number. When you look at the amount of spectrum Clear and others have for their systems and hear that they are already complaining about data capacity issues, it makes you wonder if they will have to implement some type of data capacity management on their networks.

Data usage is climbing not only on WiMAX networks but on 3G networks and across the wired Internet as well. The FCC and the industry are fighting about net neutrality while data hogs that used to be the exception to the rule are becoming the rule as more and different types of data services are becoming available. Without exception, all of the networks will have to find better ways to manage data consumption.

I have to wonder how Clear and others will rank WiMAX m (the next generation) since they are already calling the current flavor 4G. Perhaps I should offer up my trademarked “InifiniG” name. (Paul Jacobs, Chairman and CEO of Qualcomm, actually coined the term and I greatly appreciate the fact that he has let me use it.)

I also wonder why some within both the LTE and WiMAX communities must continue to make outrageous claims about data speeds and capacities. In the early days of WiMAX, Intel had on its website that we would see 30 Mbps data speeds and cell sites could be built 30 miles apart at 2.5 GHz. Now that the systems are being built, sites are denser than 1.9 GHz sites and produce data speeds of 4-6 Mbps down and 1-2 Mbps up. You would think they would learn.

From my vantage point, it looks as though WiMAX-related companies are divided about which way to go. Some want to move toward TD-LTE and align themselves with the LTE world while others are pushing for a final standard for WiMAX m so they can take advantage of next-generation WiMAX technology. Meanwhile, it all comes down to numbers—the number of customers on a system that in turn generates the revenue for the network operators and device and application vendors. Numbers are the key to any technology’s success. WiMAX was rolled out before LTE, but the support for LTE around the world indicates that there will be more LTE devices available and lower costs for LTE infrastructure and devices.

Many network operators that have already deployed CDMA2000 1X EV-DO Rev A or UMTS/HSPA won’t have to do anything more than add antennas and plug in channel cards at their sites to add LTE. Some will have to do more, which will cost more, but LTE uses a new over-the-air technology (OFDMA) that is the same as WiMAX, which means incumbents in the 3G world will be able to roll out their LTE networks less expensively than building new WiMAX networks. Conversely, since companies such as Motorola build for both LTE and WiMAX, it is not a big leap to assume that those who own Motorola infrastructure on WiMAX will be able to simply plug in LTE cards to provide LTE services.

WiMAX m is being pushed by one group of WiMAX vendors and the conversion to LTE is being planned by others in the WiMAX camp. The WiMAX-forever camp is trying to leapfrog LTE, but part of their strategy is to paint a picture of data speeds and capacities that won’t be deployable anytime soon. One thing is clear. No matter which technology is deployed where, network management will play a major role in how much capacity is available at what speeds we as customers will experience with our next-generation devices and services.

Andrew M. Seybold