The Rush to “4G”

We are entering a new generation of wireless broadband where we will be able to access wireless networks that are faster than ever before and our experiences as customers will be better than we have ever had.

Why are all of the network operators branding their new networks as “4G”? Well, it’s partly because customers don’t understand what 4G is (the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) says true 4G won’t happen until LTE Advanced becomes available) and partly because “3G+” simply doesn’t have the same ring to it!

In any case, we are entering a new generation of wireless broadband where we will be able to access wireless networks that are faster than ever before and our experiences as customers will be better than we have ever had. Even so, we need to keep in mind that wireless broadband data speeds are dependent on distance from the center of a cell (the further from it, the slower the network will appear to be), the number of customers trying to access wireless broadband within the same cell sector, and the type of applications being used.

Sprint, with its Clear network, claims to be the first to deploy 4G in the United States with a WiMAX system that is available in about 68 markets (according to the Sprint and Clear websites). Their service plans for Mobile Clear are interesting since most of them say “No Download Cap” and 1.0 Mbps upload. For home (fixed) WiMAX. For mobil they offer 1.5 Mbps down and upload speeds of 500 Kbps or 6.0 Mbps down and 1.0 Mbps up. I have been running WiMAX in many different cities when I travel and have recorded my own data speeds as measured by speakeasy.net. Speakeasy.net measures the entire route INCLUDING the actual Internet speed so it is not measuring only WiMAX. In New York City in my hotel room on the 18^th floor overlooking 7^th Avenue and 56^th Street, my data speeds over a three-day period averaged 3.61 Mbps for the download and an upload speed of 2.8 Mbps. In San Francisco, my averages were 1.93 Mbps down and 2.64 Mbps up, and in LA at the airport in the Admirals Club the speeds were 2.18 Mbps down and 2.70 Mbps up.

Next in line with its “4G” network was T-Mobile, which has decided that UMTS/HSPA+ is 4G as far as customers are concerned. While I have not tested its network, T-Mobile claims download speeds of 7 Mbps and does not specify upload speeds. It claims 96 percent of Americans are covered with its network but doesn’t specify how many of these are within its 4G coverage. As for 4G data speeds, the website states, “*T-Mobile’s 4G network, HSPA+, is capable of faster speeds than our 3G network without HSPA+; improved speeds vary due in part to device capabilities. HSPA+ operates at today’s 4G speeds; not available everywhere.”

Then came Metro PCS, which jumped out ahead of the LTE curve with its LTE deployment in at least three cities. Its website is lacking in details about data speeds and the caveats are many. I am not sure how much spectrum Metro PCS has devoted to LTE in each of its three markets. LTE can be run in 1.4, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 15.0, and 20.0 MHz of spectrum. As with any broadband technology, more bandwidth means faster downlink and uplink speeds can be offered.

Verizon

By the time you read this, Verizon will have launched its LTE network on 700 MHz. The launch date was set at December 5 and Verizon has been building out its system for a number of months. Rather than launch it market by market, the company decided that the first launch would be for 39 markets and airports. According to its press release, this launch will provide more than one-third of all Americans with access to Verizon’s LTE network.

There have been many promises about data speeds that will be available on LTE networks but, again, the speeds depend on the amount of spectrum being used. Verizon is starting with 20 MHz (10X10), but in some major metro areas it has an additional 6 MHz of spectrum available, and it also owns some AWS-1 spectrum that could also be used for LTE in other areas. If you read the press coverage at all, you have seen claims of 50 Mbps and upward for LTE, and there are a lot of ways to talk about LTE data speeds. You can refer to theoretical data rates (e.g., 100 Mbps in 20 MHz of spectrum), or peak rates of perhaps 30 Mbps in 10 MHz of spectrum, or you can be conservative and state data speeds based on a loaded network environment, which is how Verizon states its speeds.

Verizon has published the same data rate figures for the past six months and its launch press release reiterates the data rates it expects to deliver over this network: “Laptop users will experience speeds up to 10 times faster than when they surf on the company’s 3G network. In real-world, loaded network environments, data rates are expected to be 5 to 12 megabits per second (Mbps) on the downlink and 2 to 5 Mbps on the uplink.” My extensive work with LTE for public safety, which so far has only 5X5 or 10 MHz of spectrum, indicate that Verizon’s numbers are good and should set expectations at a realistic level.

Anyone expecting to see unlimited data pricing will be disappointed with Verizon’s pricing. However, wireless data is shared data and if it offered unlimited data, some customers would not have the same user experience because data hogs would use so much of the available bandwidth that others would be left with much lower data speeds. Verizon’s first pricing structure is as follows:

• $50 per month for 5 GB of monthly service
• $80 per month for 10 GB of monthly service
• Overage will be billed at $10 per 10 GB of service

But this is only the starting point for its pricing. LTE offers various levels of priority and Quality of Service (QoS), so I expect to see future pricing models based on data speeds and priority access. It would also make sense to charge more for large file downloads and perhaps other parameters as well. Pricing models will change and as more competition comes online you can bet there will be many different models and choices.

At launch, Verizon will be offering two devices capable of LTE service. The first is an LG USB modem that will provide both LTE and 3G access (the VL600), which will sell for $99.99 after a $50 rebate and with a two-year customer agreement. The Pantech UML290, which will sell for the same price, is the second USB modem.

I expect to see smartphones and many more USB modems in the market soon, as well as embedded modems in notebooks, netbooks, smartbooks, and tablets coming to market in 2011. Verizon will be adding more devices as quickly as it can—remember that this is a new technology in a new portion of the spectrum and that it always takes a while for devices to catch up to networks. Further, all of the smartphone devices will have to be able to provide voice over CDMA and data on CDMA-EVDO (3G) as well as LTE, which will be no simple task for the design engineers. LTE voice will be coming, but not for years, so for now LTE is a data-only network.

Where Is AT&T?

As you probably know, AT&T also purchased a lot of 700-MHz spectrum in the auction and is planning to deploy LTE over its own 700-MHz spectrum. My sources tell me AT&T is about a year behind Verizon and it also has HSPA+,which provides 7 Mbps down and about 2 Mbps up. Thus while it plans its 700-MHz deployment, it is not too far behind Verizon. However, the experience Verizon will gain with LTE will be invaluable. Unlike any wireless technology before it, there are many different ways to configure LTE, which offers three different data speeds for the downlink and two for the uplink. It can be configured so those closest to a cell tower achieve the highest speed, those in the middle reach the next speed, and those at the cell edge experience the slowest speed. Or it can be set up so no one achieves the highest speed so more of the customers within a cell sector can obtain the middle speed down, and only a few a the cell edge experience the slowest speed.

The LTE Experience

The Verizon system is based on release 8 of the LTE standard and other enhancements will be made as soon as possible. These enhancements will add new features, but over time they will also result in increased speeds in both directions (down and up). Further, as mentioned earlier in this article, LTE is configurable in a variety of ways and only after it is deployed and the network operators start working with the variables for setting up a network will we begin to see the true capabilities of LTE. Once again, it must be stated that wireless capacity and data speeds are based on the number of users within a single cell sector. If you are the only one in a cell sector, you will receive the full benefit of all of the broadband speeds and capacity, but if you are one of ten or twenty, you will experience performance based on the type of usage you are requesting and the type of data services being used by other users within the same cell sector.

If you all are emailing and surfing the Internet, your LTE experience will be faster than anything you have experienced thus far unless you are lucky enough to have access to fiber. However, if there are ten people who are all streaming video in the same cell sector, merchants or others who have decided to use LTE for fixed cameras, or home or business owners that find that LTE is faster than their DSL or cable systems and install fixed LTE terminals, the data speeds available in that cell sector will be slower. After all, that is the nature of shared wireless broadband. The number of users per cell sector and the type of data they are downloading or uploading will determine how much bandwidth is left for you and others. If you are the only customer in a cell sector and then, all of a sudden, you are joined online by ten or twenty others who are now streaming video, your data speed will suffer.

There are “choke points” in every broadband system. The access speed we each have, the number of customers trying to use that technology, the capacity of the feeds to the Internet, and the speed of the Internet itself all come into play when we are trying to maximize the user experience.

Conclusion

Any company that promises a fixed data rate for wireless access is not being truthful. There are many variables when it comes to wireless broadband access and it is important for customers to be informed about all of these. As we have already seen, false expectations will quickly destroy a company’s credibility. Tell the truth and help customers understand that there is no such thing as guaranteed data speeds for a network and they will remain customers. Stretch the truth and they will be gone, telling others of the promises made and not kept.

Customers will continue to be confused by network performance variations and in the long run, realistic statements about what to expect will improve the two major parameters Wall Street uses to evaluate public wireless operators: the number of new subscribers added per month and the number of customers lost (churn). I firmly believe that those who subscribe to the theme of my blog—TELL IT LIKE IT IS—will do better than those who simply issue press releases dissing their competitors. When it comes to wireless, we were all born in Missouri, the Show Me State!

Andrew M. Seybold